Monday, December 26, 2011
Syrian NGOs Working Directly With British Government
London-based "Syrian Observatory" Consorting Directly with UK Foreign Minister Hague.
Rami Abdelrahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, leaves the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in central London
Rami Abdelrahman, REUTERS
Tony Cartalucci, Contributing Writer
Activist Post
In May 2011's article "The Siege of Syria," it was reported:
The coverage by the corporate-owned Western media exclusively relies on 'activists inside and outside the country,' the London-based 'Syrian Human Rights Monitoring Centre' which apparently has no web presence, the Damascus Center for Human Rights which boasts memberships with the National Endowment for Democracy and Tides Foundation-funded International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) and the Coalition for the International Criminal Court, funded by the European Union, the Ford Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Open Society Institute, the Sigrid Rausing Trust, and Humanity United.
Humanity United in turn boast partnerships with the BBC World Service Trust, NED/Open Society/US State Department-funded Benetech, the Open Society Institute, and the NED-funded Solidarity Center which mobilized Egypt's labor unions just as the US-stoked unrest began to falter. In other words, every organization involved interlocks with the vast corporate/foundation-funded imperial network masquerading as individual 'human rights organizations' and benign NGOs. In reality this 'civil society' network seeks to supplant national governments, and interface with global "institutions" like the IMF, World Bank, and the UN, all of which have been contrived by corporate-financier oligarchs. It is a modern-day empire in the making.
The US National Endowment for Democracy's journal, Democracy Digest, would report in their August 2011 article titled, "Syrian military ‘strained’, as Clinton meets opposition activists," (warning: link automatically plays very loud video clip) that the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights made one of many joint statements with the above mentioned US-funded Damascus Center for Human Rights. Meanwhile, Reuters featured a photograph of the Observatory's head, Rami Abdelrahman, leaving a meeting with the British Foreign Minister William Hague.
It is quite clear that the "Syrian Observatory for Human Rights" based in London and receiving the entirety of their reports via "phone" & YouTube videos from Syria, is working in coordination with both US-funded NGOs and the British Foreign Minister. Considering that Hague similarly coddled Libyan opposition leaders in London while playing a key role in promoting the NATO attack on Libya and the subsequent installation of a BP oilman as "prime minister," Abdelrahman's consorting signifies a verbatim repeat of the now openly fraudulent and genocidal NATO campaign in Libya.
Just as in Libya, where "human rights activists" have now admitted to fabricating the evidence used by the International Criminal Court and the United Nations to rubber stamp Wall Street and London's designs for regime change, likewise the "evidence" from Syria has turned out to be a complete fraud, derived by opposition "witnesses" and compiled by a corporate D.C. think-tank director into a UN "human rights report."
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights serves as the exclusive source of "reports" coming out of Syria despite the fact that it is actually, entirely based in London. While it is verified that the NGOs it works in tandem with are US-funded, the Observatory itself fails to publish where its money comes from or the backgrounds of those that constitute its membership. We then, are expected to simply believe on face value a mysterious organization whose head meets with the British government and their unverified "witness accounts" as evidence to initiate military intervention at the cost of potentially millions of lives.
That the corporate-media has utterly failed to hold the Observatory accountable for its lack of transparency, and parrots verbatim its absolutely unverified, undocumented reports as if they were factual, gives us a new appreciation of the level on which we are being deceived across the Western world by the press.
It is already confirmed that NATO-backed Libyan terrorists are on their way to Syria to oversee the "Free Syria Army," led by Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) commander Abdul Belhaj. It should be noted that LIFG is currently listed by the US State Department as a foreign terrorist organization (#26). Shortly thereafter, two bombs detonated in Damascus killing 44 people. France24 reported that the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood's official website claimed responsibility for the bombings, confirming that indeed, the "protests" were armed militants all along.
Despite later retractions by the Brotherhood's London-based leadership, mounting evidence suggests that NATO and its proxies are behind the unrest and increasing violence, while London-based NGOs like the Observatory disingenuously spin responsibility back onto the Syrian government as part of a malicious hoax aimed at triggering the same genocide and destruction that delivered Libyan into the hands of global corporate-fascism.
Tony Cartalucci's articles have appeared on many alternative media websites, including his own at
Land Destroyer Report.
http://www.activistpost.com/2011/12/syrian-ngos-working-directly-with.html
Alien, UFO, Conspiracy, 2012, Freemasons, Illuminati, New World Order, Bilderberg Group, World War 3, The Protocols of the Elders of Zion, Vatican, Black Nobility, Fourth Reich, Paranormal Phenomena. Main purpose of this blog is to explore New World Order and how it related to our real life. Blog updated daily. 揭秘外星人,飛碟,陰謀論,2012,共濟會,光明會,新世界秩序,標達堡,第3次世界大戰,錫安長老會紀要,梵蒂岡,黑貴族,德意志第四帝國及超自然現象。資料訊息來自互聯網,Blog每天更新,這是一個開放的平台讓各網友了解有關新世界秩序的最新消息。
Search This Blog
27.12.11
是否另類媒體迫使美國政府阻止致命的禽流感研究呢?
Monday, December 26, 2011
Anthony Gucciardi
Activist PostThe United States government has effectively blocked the release of two studies that describe how to create a deadly weaponized H5N1 bird flu after directly funding the research. Did pressure from the alternative media force US government officials to block the results that they had originally funded?
It all began when virologist Ron Fouchier of the Erasmus Medical Center in the Netherlands mutated the H5N1 bird flu virus 5 times, making the virus highly contagious between ferrets – the animal model used to study human flu infection. This is concerning due to the fact that the H5N1 bird flu is not very contagious among humans, which is the reason that there has been no recent bird flu pandemic. If the results were released, however, it would be quite easy for an individual or organization to replicate them and potentially create a pandemic that would kill or endanger millions across the globe. In fact, since 1997 the H5N1 bird flu virus has killed more than 1 in every 2 people that it infected. It is easy to see that the mortality rate of this virus is quite shocking, and if it were to extend to the global population in the event of a pandemic then there would be catastrophic results.
Government Blocks Own Research After News Hits General Public
Fouchier pushed for this method to be released in major scientific journals, and many scientific organizations and bioterrorism experts debated whether or not the results should be released. Dr. Thomas Inglesby, a bioterrorism expert and director of the Center for Biosecurity of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, was one such expert to warn against releasing the volatile results
It’s just a bad idea for scientists to turn a lethal virus into a lethal and highly contagious virus. And it’s a second bad idea for them to publish how they did it so others can copy it, says Inglesby.
Unfortunately for Fouchier and the United States government, the alternative media highlighted the lunacy of creating such an extreme bioweapon, backed by professional statements like Inglesby.
Naturally, public concern mounted and even the mainstream media began pinpointing the outlandish nature of not only the potential release, but the initial study itself. On Tuesday, December 21st, federal officials took an unprecedented move and blocked the full results of the study from being published in the journals Science and Nature.
It is important to remember that the U.S. government actually funded this study, paying Fouchier to mutate the virus to become highly contagious and potentially pandemic-breeding. It was only after public outcry that any attempt was made to quickly change positions and exclude the entirety of the research.
Amazingly, some scientists and universities as a whole are still calling for the full release of the research, saying that despite the major threat of bioterrorism, the full research is needed for the ‘development of vaccines and drugs’. Of course not only does the university ignore the fact that vitamin D is more effective than vaccines at preventing all forms of the flu, but they are calling for vaccines that would be ‘needed’ in the event of a bird flu outbreak when not releasing the full results can prevent an outbreak and the subsequent full-scale need for these items.
Would it be worth releasing the entirety of the study to develop experimental vaccines to treat the low number of humans currently affected by the H5N1 virus to potentially risk a global pandemic?
The university statement reads:
While recognizing the potential for misuse of scientific discovery, the research described by UW-Madison researchers is essential for public health, global influenza surveillance activities and the development of vaccines and drugs to counter any potential pandemic.
Activism is alive and well, and it has prevented a potential pandemic of unknown proportions. Acting as a powerful watchdog entity, the alternative media continues to break major stories into the mainstream news, generating public outrage and therefore stopping unjust actions such as the blueprint release of heavily mutated H5N1 virus.
http://www.activistpost.com/2011/12/did-alternative-media-force-us-govt-to.html
「天然」食品也難逃基因改造
玉米及黃豆製品幾乎是美國消費者每日的飲食需求,成千上萬的美國人因此受到感染、嚴重的麩質過敏反應、頭痛、頭暈、腎結石、腸道功能失調、甚至細胞 突變導致的癌症所摧殘,這是醫療保健業者樂見的結果。孟山都基因改造農場的面積從 1997 年的 400 萬英畝增加到現在已經超過 3 億 3000 萬英畝,大部分都在美國境內,巴西和印度現在也是熱門的基因改造大本營。
素食漢堡也不例外,商店內不論是盒裝、袋裝或罐裝的黃豆製品都無一倖免,唯一能夠找到真正食物的地方只剩下販賣新鮮蔬果的物架;而且由於有愈來愈多受過教育的消費者知道如何分辨毒素及狡滑的成分標示,美國食品及藥物管理局 (FDA) 因而不斷改變有毒物質的名稱。
美國的黃豆製品超過 93% 是孟山都的基因改造產品,容易致癌。下列即是應該避免繼續食用的食品成分:植物油、卵磷脂 (一種乳化劑)、濃縮黃豆蛋白、豆腐、醬油、照燒醬、黃豆粉、黃豆、豆醬、黃豆異黃酮、豆奶、水解植物蛋白、水解黃豆酵母、黃豆配方奶粉、非乳製冷凍優格 及黃豆分離纖維。大豆分離蛋白含有高達 92% 的蛋白質,而且所含的高度精製蛋白質含量是所有黃豆製品之冠。
美國的玉米製品也有超過 86% 是孟山都的基因改造產品,而且同樣容易致癌。布希政府出錢資助孟山都惡名昭彰的高果糖玉米糖漿,用以製作乙醇及動物飼料 (造成動物消化道感染);但牛隻的構造無法消化玉米,特別是孟山都的致癌基因改造玉米,因此若是以玉米餵食牛隻,農民即必須另外使用抗生素對抗消化道感 染,於是形成藥物與肉品之間的惡性循環。
消費者需儘量避免食用下列成分:玉米澱粉、玉米片、發酵粉、焦糖 (使用玉米糖漿製造)、糖粉、玉米粉、玉米麩質、玉米糖漿、玉米油、葡萄糖 (Dextrose)、糊精、麥芽糊精、食用澱粉、改良食用澱粉、果糖、阿拉伯膠、葡萄糖酸內酯 (Glucono-D-Lactone,GDL)、轉化糖、轉化糖漿、麥芽糖漿及萃取物、單雙甘油酯、味精、蔗糖、糖蜜 (Treacle)、植物蛋白、植物起酥油以及三仙膠 (Xanthan Gum,又稱黃原膠)。如果喜歡吃玉米,可以選擇有機的玉米棒。
油菜籽油也是會致癌的基因改造產品。這種成分來自油菜,是一種強效的殺蟲劑,從來不適合人類食用,加拿大卻賄賂 FDA 將油菜籽油標示為安全成分。油菜籽油已經證實會干擾中樞神經系統,造成呼吸系統疾病、便秘、幼兒出生體重過輕甚至肺癌;它並不只是另一種可供選擇的油脂, 加拿大推銷它只因為這是國家主要的出口商品之一。
也要注意非有機的蕃茄、馬鈴薯、甜菜及苜蓿;有關基因改造玉米及黃豆產品標示「全天然」或「含天然成分」的謊言則正在被一一揭穿。結構性植物蛋白 (TVP) 是一種由黃豆粉製成的替代肉品,通常是片狀或塊狀,這種看似肉類的混合物並不適合動物食用,更不用說人類,但是食譜中卻常建議將這種成分加入湯或醬汁中; 結構性植物蛋白的保存期限也是食品之最。
料理可以選擇橄欖油或椰子油、以及 100% 有機的食物。如果無法記下所有毒素的名稱,可以將這篇文章列印下來放在皮夾或皮包當中,在商店採購的時候就能方便參考。只要改變飲食習慣就能立即感覺到變化,你的身體也會給予充沛的活力作為回報。
參考資料
http://www.naturalnews.com/033780_natural_foods_GMOs.html
埃及報紙:全國最具爭議的兩個“共濟會獵人”
2011年12月27日 6:12:33
Egypt Independent has named Egyptian presidential candidate Tawfik Okasha and his protege Ahmed Spider as two of its five "most controversial figures in 2011."
The newspaper appears to have no love for those named on its list, and subtly mocks Mr. Spider, saying that he believes "Egypt is under attack from the Freemasons, and that the revolution was planned in advance by shadowy figures." Again, note that the push for democracy is equated with "shadowy" behavior and Freemasonry. This myth has long circulated the Middle East, but it is troubling to see it in the post-Mubarak Egypt.
Tawfik Okasha is described as "one of Egypt’s preeminent miners digging for Freemasons." Okasha recently took the time to denounce Canadian TV show host Michael Coren as a "Freemason," much to Coren's surprise. Egypt Independent says Okasha, is "remarkable in his energy and vitality, delivering enraged monologues about the Zionist-Freemason plot against Egypt interspersed with tributes and messages to his flock, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) supporters who gather on some Fridays in Abbaseyya Square."
The Giza pyramid was closed on 11/112011 due to fears that a Masonic ritual with a Star of David was going to take place there. Apparently inspired by this, Okasha, Egyptian Independent says, recently discussed on TV, "the danger of 13/13/2013, the day when Freemason powers are apparently at their highest." The newspaper notes that the message was "undermined slightly by a studio hand pointing out live on air that there is no 13th month in the calendar."
http://beforeitsnews.com/story/1552/636/Egyptian_newspaper:_two_Freemason_hunters_among_nations_most_controversial.html
Egypt Independent has named Egyptian presidential candidate Tawfik Okasha and his protege Ahmed Spider as two of its five "most controversial figures in 2011."
The newspaper appears to have no love for those named on its list, and subtly mocks Mr. Spider, saying that he believes "Egypt is under attack from the Freemasons, and that the revolution was planned in advance by shadowy figures." Again, note that the push for democracy is equated with "shadowy" behavior and Freemasonry. This myth has long circulated the Middle East, but it is troubling to see it in the post-Mubarak Egypt.
Tawfik Okasha is described as "one of Egypt’s preeminent miners digging for Freemasons." Okasha recently took the time to denounce Canadian TV show host Michael Coren as a "Freemason," much to Coren's surprise. Egypt Independent says Okasha, is "remarkable in his energy and vitality, delivering enraged monologues about the Zionist-Freemason plot against Egypt interspersed with tributes and messages to his flock, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) supporters who gather on some Fridays in Abbaseyya Square."
The Giza pyramid was closed on 11/112011 due to fears that a Masonic ritual with a Star of David was going to take place there. Apparently inspired by this, Okasha, Egyptian Independent says, recently discussed on TV, "the danger of 13/13/2013, the day when Freemason powers are apparently at their highest." The newspaper notes that the message was "undermined slightly by a studio hand pointing out live on air that there is no 13th month in the calendar."
http://beforeitsnews.com/story/1552/636/Egyptian_newspaper:_two_Freemason_hunters_among_nations_most_controversial.html
(有片)雙子UFO出現在日本火山/星際之門
2011年12月27日 5:35:07
TWIN UFO ORBS EMERGE FROM A JAPANESE VOLCANO & UNDERGROUND BASE/STARGATE (HD)
From: danielofdoriaa | Dec 26, 2011
http://beforeitsnews.com/story/1552/428/Twin_UFOs_Emerge_From_Volcano_Stargate_In_Japan.html
伸延閱讀
(有片)美國聯邦緊急措施署(FEMA)為UFO攻擊作準備
2011在秘魯的UFO母船
火球UFO調查,美國俄亥俄州曼斯菲爾德 - Fox News
UFO Creates Cloud And Shocks City In Russia, 23 December 2011
TWIN UFO ORBS EMERGE FROM A JAPANESE VOLCANO & UNDERGROUND BASE/STARGATE (HD)
From: danielofdoriaa | Dec 26, 2011
http://beforeitsnews.com/story/1552/428/Twin_UFOs_Emerge_From_Volcano_Stargate_In_Japan.html
伸延閱讀
UFO-烏拉爾河居民中發現不尋常的巨大的冰塊
(有片)美國聯邦緊急措施署(FEMA)為UFO攻擊作準備
2011在秘魯的UFO母船
火球UFO調查,美國俄亥俄州曼斯菲爾德 - Fox News
UFO Creates Cloud And Shocks City In Russia, 23 December 2011
(有片)雙子UFO出現在日本火山/星際之門
(有片)神秘的信號導至美國科羅拉多州丹佛國際機場附近停電
2011年12月25日 0:58:31
Just 30 miles away from Denver International Airport (DIA), something in Arvada produced a frequency signal strong enough to knock out power to 40 garage doors in a community. The City of Arvada is a Home Rule Municipality located in Jefferson and Adams counties in the Denver metropolitan area of the U.S. State of Colorado.
The problem started two days ago in the 7000 block of Torrey Court. It encompasses a half mile radius.
"It's really weird," said Gina, who lives in the area. She did not want to provide her last name. "No one knows what it is."
Gina thought she was alone, until she learned of other neighbors dealing with the same problem.
"I think it's amazing," Colin Cooper, another neighbor, said. "What if it's a UFO?" he joked.
Experts say anything with a wireless signal could affect garage doors.
"Like Christmas lights, coffee makers, appliances," Gina said.
The pros told Gina and other neighbors small items couldn't have caused this big of a problem. So whatever it is, it is rather large.
"I wish we knew," Gina said.
For now, it remains a mystery. The 40 people who live on Torrey Court have to find a way to fix their garage doors.
In Mid of September this year, we had reported Denver Airport "Close Encounter With Third Kind" Movie Connection Decoded.
In that article we had mentioned, back when Close Encounters of the Third Kind was made the Denver Airport was nothing more than a farmer's field. Airport came in existence 16 years later at that location. DIA official land size, is 53 square miles (140 km2), it is the largest international airport in the United States.
http://beforeitsnews.com/story/1548/173/Mysterious_Signal_Knocks_Out_Power_Near_Denver_International_Airport,_Colorado,_US.html
以色列被抓銷售69枚美國愛國者導彈給共產中國
2011年12月24日 12:53:55
Iron Dome Defense Missiles Seized by Finland, Labeled “Fireworks”
69 Newest Patriot Missiles Seized on MS Thor Liberty
By Gordon Duff, Senior Editor
Finnish authorities have confirmed the seizure of 69 Patriot missiles manufactured by Raytheon Corporation today. During a routine search of the MS Thor Liberty, a ship flagged by the Isle of Man, at the Finnish port of Kotka, authorities found 69 Patriot missiles capable of a type capable of intercepting ICBMs, the most modern available and America’s most sensitive military technology ... read more>>
http://beforeitsnews.com/story/1547/208/Israel_Caught_Selling_69_US_Patriot_Missiles_to_Red_China.html
(有片)12月28-29號地球主導的M -5級太陽風暴將抵達
2011年12月27日 5:51:29
MEs TARGET EARTH, MARS: The odds of a geomagnetic storm on Dec. 28th are improving with the launch of two CMEs toward Earth in less than 24 hours. NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft photographed this one on Dec. 26th:
According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud should squarely strike Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 28th at 20:22 UT (+/- 7 hours). Another CME could deliver a glancing blow a few hours earlier on the same date. The double impact is expected to spark mild-to-moderate geomagnetic storms at high latitudes. Aurora alerts: text, voice.
www.spaceweather.com/
Uploaded by MrCometwatch on Dec 26, 2011
http://beforeitsnews.com/story/1552/448/Earth_Directed_M-5_Class_Solar_Flare_Arrives_12-28_29.html
(有片)200張神奇的火星照片:金字塔,塔,城市,遺址,飛碟,水和更多...
2011年12月26日 10:23:49
According to Andrew Basiago, Brett Stillings & Laura Eisenhower, two former participants in the CIA’s Mars visitation program of the early 1980’s have confirmed that Barack H. Obama was enrolled in their Mars training class in 1980 and was among the young Americans from the program who they later encountered on the Martian surface. link to www.blogtalkradio.com
What did Obama see while he was on Mars? Why are 'they' still keeping it a big secret?
http://beforeitsnews.com/story/1550/522/200_Amazing_Photos_Of_Mars:_Pyramids,_Towers,_Cities,_Ruins,_UFOs,_Water_And_More....html
中國將染上「日本病」?
2011年12月27日
諾貝爾經濟學者克魯明( Paul Krugman)從來不是中國的 fans,九十年代中國經濟開始起飛時,他就寫過一篇"The Myth of Asia's Miracle"的短文,質疑亞洲以至中國倚賴投資再投資推動經濟不可能持久。克魯明又認為中國的經濟數據水份多,沙石多,又帶有虛報謊報的做法,根本難 以根據數字評估中國經濟的實況。到近幾年,中國持續錄得巨額貿易盈餘,囤積三萬億美元外滙儲備,克魯明又不斷撰文鼓吹美國政府及國會採取懲罰性措施逼人民 幣升值,促使中國增加內需,以改善其他國家的競爭力,減低貿易不平衡的情況。
前幾天,這位向來看淡中國的學者又再在《紐約時報》的專欄發炮,認為 中國的投資特別是房地產泡沫剛爆破,後遺症將持續出現,隨時會像九十年代的日本及二○○七年後的美國那樣經濟突然大幅收縮,禍及全球經濟。克魯明對中國的 批評很多人未必同意,他不斷鼓吹要人民幣大幅升值更被中國政府視為「噪音」。但是,他今次提出的警告是有根有據的,很值得大家深思。
根據克魯明的 分析,中國過去十年的高速經濟增長都是由投資包括基建及房地產投資帶動,內部消費卻始終沒有起色,到現在仍不過佔生產總值百分之三十五左右,跟發達國家如 美國之類佔百分之六、七十相距甚遠。相反,投資佔整體經濟的份額卻不斷上升,從百分之四十以下升至接近百分之五十。而在新增的投資中,房地產投資佔了一半 以上。換言之,過去十年中國經濟飛躍旺氣十足,靠的主要是房價不斷上升,是房地產泡沫不斷膨脹。
誰都知道,房地產泡沫最能夠拖動整體經濟上升,也 最疑幻似真的。以香港為例,樓價上升令業主的紙上財富大幅增值,令樓市交投暢旺,令銀行貸款需求大增,令律師、建築師以及其他商業服務客似雲來,令建築行 業如魚得水。差不多所有人都好像有花不完的錢,有用不盡的資金。而且,泡沫還會不斷自我強化,不斷麻痹企業、消費者、政府官員,彷彿好景是理所當然,沒有 結束的一天。九七回歸時的香港固然如此,八十年代末的日本,東京皇宮所在的土地價值比整個加州地價還要貴。二○○七年前的美國同樣如此,同樣看似好景長 在。
問題是泡沫是必然會爆破的;而泡沫越大,爆破時的殺傷力也越大。香港花了七年時間逐步清理泡沫後遺症,再由於內地資金湧入才扭轉頹勢,美國○ 七年樓市泡沫爆破引發金融海嘯,花了幾萬億元公帑救市仍有點一籌莫展,復蘇的步伐仍然蹣跚得很,日本更不用說了,從九○年到現在已二十一年,經濟還是那樣 虛弱不堪,就像久病不起的人那樣。中國的房地產投資熱潮長達十年,泡沫即使比不上日本也非常巨大,涉及的投資數以萬億計,涉及的業主、企業數以百萬計。
現 在,各種迹象包括房價跌,交投縮,地方債惡化,大耳窿崛起,資金周轉困難都顯示中國樓市泡沫正在爆破,不斷升值、資金不斷的遊戲已成過去。從銀行到發展商 到建築公司到小業主都要開始埋單計數,都要開始為過去的非理性亢奮還債。而大量過往被隱藏的債務都會浮上水面,令內地整個金融體系面臨壞賬大增,資金緊絀 以至周轉不靈的困局,情況就像九十年代的日本及近幾年的美國那樣。
不少人會說,中國政府有的是錢,開動印 鈔機就可以解決水緊問題。可是,印鈔將引發惡性通脹,中國政府不會冒社會不穩的政治風險;再加上房地產業已成資金黑洞,企業、小投資者避之則吉,令整個行 業面臨長期萎縮。內部消費長期不振加上房地產盛況不再,中國還有甚麼新的火車頭推動經濟呢?明年、後年要保八真的一點不容易,弄得不好來個經濟逆轉更肯定 殃及香港、亞洲及全球,大家可得有心理準備。前幾天,這位向來看淡中國的學者又再在《紐約時報》的專欄發炮,認為 中國的投資特別是房地產泡沫剛爆破,後遺症將持續出現,隨時會像九十年代的日本及二○○七年後的美國那樣經濟突然大幅收縮,禍及全球經濟。克魯明對中國的 批評很多人未必同意,他不斷鼓吹要人民幣大幅升值更被中國政府視為「噪音」。但是,他今次提出的警告是有根有據的,很值得大家深思。
根據克魯明的 分析,中國過去十年的高速經濟增長都是由投資包括基建及房地產投資帶動,內部消費卻始終沒有起色,到現在仍不過佔生產總值百分之三十五左右,跟發達國家如 美國之類佔百分之六、七十相距甚遠。相反,投資佔整體經濟的份額卻不斷上升,從百分之四十以下升至接近百分之五十。而在新增的投資中,房地產投資佔了一半 以上。換言之,過去十年中國經濟飛躍旺氣十足,靠的主要是房價不斷上升,是房地產泡沫不斷膨脹。
誰都知道,房地產泡沫最能夠拖動整體經濟上升,也 最疑幻似真的。以香港為例,樓價上升令業主的紙上財富大幅增值,令樓市交投暢旺,令銀行貸款需求大增,令律師、建築師以及其他商業服務客似雲來,令建築行 業如魚得水。差不多所有人都好像有花不完的錢,有用不盡的資金。而且,泡沫還會不斷自我強化,不斷麻痹企業、消費者、政府官員,彷彿好景是理所當然,沒有 結束的一天。九七回歸時的香港固然如此,八十年代末的日本,東京皇宮所在的土地價值比整個加州地價還要貴。二○○七年前的美國同樣如此,同樣看似好景長 在。
問題是泡沫是必然會爆破的;而泡沫越大,爆破時的殺傷力也越大。香港花了七年時間逐步清理泡沫後遺症,再由於內地資金湧入才扭轉頹勢,美國○ 七年樓市泡沫爆破引發金融海嘯,花了幾萬億元公帑救市仍有點一籌莫展,復蘇的步伐仍然蹣跚得很,日本更不用說了,從九○年到現在已二十一年,經濟還是那樣 虛弱不堪,就像久病不起的人那樣。中國的房地產投資熱潮長達十年,泡沫即使比不上日本也非常巨大,涉及的投資數以萬億計,涉及的業主、企業數以百萬計。
現 在,各種迹象包括房價跌,交投縮,地方債惡化,大耳窿崛起,資金周轉困難都顯示中國樓市泡沫正在爆破,不斷升值、資金不斷的遊戲已成過去。從銀行到發展商 到建築公司到小業主都要開始埋單計數,都要開始為過去的非理性亢奮還債。而大量過往被隱藏的債務都會浮上水面,令內地整個金融體系面臨壞賬大增,資金緊絀 以至周轉不靈的困局,情況就像九十年代的日本及近幾年的美國那樣。
http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/template/apple/art_main.php?iss_id=20111227&sec_id=4104&subsec_id=15333&art_id=15927823&cat_id=32&coln_id=60
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)